How to Win Your Oscar Pool

Okay, so everyone needs a little help with their Office Oscar Pool every year and that's pretty much what I'm here for.... so let's get started.  This year it is very difficult to predict some categories that are otherwise usually, fairly... well, predictable.  However, don't worry, there are plenty of absolute no-brainers that should keep you close.

BEST ACTRESS

It's a dead heat between Cate Blanchett from BLUE JASMINE and Amy Adams from AMERICAN HUSTLE.  Cate probably has the slight edge even if Amy is the only one in the category who has never won.  Still, Cate has only won the supporting Oscar so this is likely her year to get the big lady.  And she is pretty much the greatest working actress today.  So there's that.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

It's a three legged race between Jennifer Lawrence in AMERICAN HUSTLE, June Squibb in NEBRASKA and Lupita Nyong'O for 12 YEARS A SLAVE.  Lawrence won the Globe, Nyon'O won the SAG.  Squibb is just plain awesome.  Lawrence did just win last year, but going back to back is not out of the question with arguably the most powerful actress in Hollywood.  Gotta go with your gut here.  Slightest of edges to Jen.  PS, this is usually the first award of the night, too, so it sets the tone for your entire pool.

ACTOR AND SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto are virtual locks for DALLAS BUYERS CLUB.  They've won everything, the Globes and SAGS, so unless you want to lose, check their names on your ballot.

HAIR AND MAKEUP

I gotta go with DALLAS BUYERS CLUB here as well.  Maybe BAD GRANDPA wins. After all, Johnny Knoxville was unrecognizable and HAD to fool real people.  The Academy does do wonky shit like this every now and then, like give Eminem the Oscar over U2.

ANIMATED FEATURE AND SONG

FROZEN is pretty much the darling this year, so it's very likely it nabs both of these Oscars.  If you need a second choice, U2's song for the Mandela film is a nice alternate, and since Eminem isn't nominated, their chances are much better... Jesus, God, let's just hope Puff Diddy ain't handing out the award, though it would be hilarious if the Academy went that route just for the freaked out cutaways of Bono dreading if they did win.  PS, if you're looking for an upset in the animated feature department, go with THE WIND RISES.

FOREIGN FILM

For now I'm gonna say either THE HUNT or THE GREAT BEAUTY.

DOCUMENTARY

THE SQUARE or THE ACT OF KILLING are my favorites at the moment.

ANIMATED, DOCUMENTARY, LIVE ACTION SHORTS

No CURFEW this year so your guess is as good as mine in Live Action Short, and same goes for these other two utterly unpredictable categories.

SOUND MIXING, SOUND EDITING, VISUAL EFFECTS, CINEMATOGRAPHY, SCORE

These five Oscars are going to go to GRAVITY.  Put it in the books.

COSTUME DESIGN AND PRODUCTION DESIGN

I think THE GREAT GATSBY should take these two Oscars.  When compared to the other films, Baz Luhrman's film truly deserves to win these two awards, BUT if you think that 12 YEARS A SLAVE or AMERICAN HUSTLE is going to win Best Picture, there's a chance Oscar will default here, so whatever you go with as your Best Picture, you could play it safe and check off that film in these two categories.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

12 YEARS A SLAVE is likely going to bring this one home.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is where Spike Jonze's film HER will be honored, though there's an outside chance it goes to AMERICAN HUSTLE.

PICTURE AND FILM EDITING

Over the last 30 years, it's a dead split where the winner of Best Picture also takes home best editing (15 out of 30).  But in the years that Best Picture doesn't take editing, it's usually a costume drama or picks up a lot of acting awards.  This year, that's probably not going to be the case (though AMERICAN HUSTLE could win two acting awards).  But I think it's a good strategy to match these two awards up, so your top three choices are AMERICAN HUSTLE, GRAVITY and 12 YEARS A SLAVE.

DIRECTOR

Regardless of what wins Best Picture, Alfonso Cuaron should have this one in the bag for GRAVITY.

My Favorite TV Shows

There are so many good shows out there, but I really have to limit my list to those I've either watched the entire series, or am at least current, or getting current on.

HALF HOUR COMEDIES

1. Archer
2. How I Met Your Mother 
3. Curb Your Enthusiasm
4. Community 
5. Louie
6. Better Off Ted
7. Modern Family
8. Seinfeld
9. News Radio
10. The King of Queens
11. Everybody Loves Raymond
12. Flight of the Conchords
13. Arrested Development
14. Entourage
15. Cheers
16. 30 Rock
17. That 70's Show
18. Night Court
19. Family Ties
20. The Cosby Show
21. Taxi
22. Scrubs
23. The IT Crowd
24. Episodes
25. Married with Children
26. Friends
27. It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
28. The Office

ONE HOUR DRAMAS

1. Game of Thrones
2. Mad Men
3. Breaking Bad
4. Dexter
5. The Sopranos
6. House M.D.
7. LOST
8. The Vampire Diaries
9. Battlestar Galactica
10. Freaks and Geeks
11. 24
12. Alias
13. Big Love

MOVIES BY DECADE 

 

Top 25 Movies of the 60s

1. Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
2. Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid
3. Vertigo
4. Bonnie & Clyde
5. A Fistful of Dollars
6. For a Few Dollars More
7. The Good, the Bad & the Ugly
8. Cool Hand Luke
9. 2001: A Space Odyssey 
10. The Hustler
11. The Graduate
12. Psycho
13. Lolita
14. The Italian Job
15. Lawrence of Arabia 
16. Spartacus
17. Easy Rider
18. 8 1/2
19. Breakfast at Tiffany's
20. The Lion in Winter
21. Planet of the Apes
22. Dr. No
23. The Odd Couple
24. To Kill a Mockingbird
25. The Pink Panther

Top 25 Movies of the 70s

1. Jaws
2. Star Wars
3. The Godfather
4. The Godfather Part II
5. Chinatown
6. Alien
7. Love Story
8. Annie Hall
9. Superman
10. Apocalypse, Now
11. Close Encounters of the Third Kind
12. Taxi Driver 
13. The Sting
14. All the President's Men
15. Serpico
16. Dog Day Afternoon
17. Young Frankenstein
18. One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
19. Rocky
20. The Exorcist
21. A Clockwork Orange 
22. Network
23. Five Easy Pieces
24. Blazing Saddles
25. The Spy Who Loved Me

Top 25 Movies of the 80s

1. Die Hard
2. The Empire Strikes Back
3. Platoon
4. Raiders of the Lost Ark
5. Aliens
6. The Terminator
7. Beverly Hills Cop
8. Ghostbusters
9. Back to the Future
10. Wall Street
11. Top Gun
12. The Color of Money
13. Midnight Run 
14. The Princess Bride
15. The Shining
16. The Untouchables 
17. Superman II
18. Blade Runner
19. Predator
20. Trading Places
21. Raising Arizona
22. Ferris Bueller's Day Off
23. The Breakfast Club
24. Near Dark 
25. Poltergeist

Top 25 Movies of the 90s

1. Unforgiven
2. The Shawshank Redemption
3. Se7en
4. Thelma & Louise
5. Edward Scissorhands
6. Boogie Nights
7. Goodfellas
8. Pulp Fiction
9. True Lies
10. Interview with the Vampire
11. The Usual Suspects
12. Mission: Impossible
13. Fight Club
14. South Park: Bigger Longer & Uncut
15. The Silence of the Lambs
16. Fargo
17. Heat
18. Toy Story
19. Toy Story 2
20. Reservoir Dogs
21. Forrest Gump
22. Terminator 2: Judgment Day
23. Jurassic Park
24. Schindler's List
25. Batman Returns

Top 25 Movies of the 2000s

1. The Royal Tenenbaums
2. The Incredibles
3. Catch Me If You Can
4. There Will Be Blood
5. The Departed
6. Vicky Christina Barcelona
7. Casino Royale
8. Requiem of a Dream
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
10. V for Vendetta
11. The Dark Knight 
12. Finding Nemo
13. Wall-E
14. X-Men
15. X-Men 2
16. Memento
17. Wedding Crashers
18. Training Day
19. Ocean's Eleven
20. The Bourne Identity
21. The Bourne Supremacy
22. The Bourne Ultimatum
23. Iron Man
24. Kill Bill Vol. 1
25. About a Boy

Top 25 Movies 2010-Present

1. Gravity
2. The Social Network
3. Django Unchained
4. Life of Pi
5. Inception
6. Toy Story 3
7. Moneyball
8. Black Swan
9. Silver Linings Playbook
10. Midnight in Paris
11. Shame 
12. The Fighter
13. Looper
14. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
15. The Artist
16. Captain Phillips
17. Zero Dark Thirty
18. Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
19. Argo
20. Source Code
21. Thor
22. Melancholia
23. The Descendants
24. Moonrise Kingdom
25. True Grit

Christmas List

Christmas List

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tears and madness

tears and madness sent to me
tragedies and old wounds have been reopened
pleads i leave them alone
i must escape my asylum

racing down the highway
my own tears and madness upon me
i find her slumped in the sofa, the lights dim
she spins in circles, chasing and being chased

we take a step back
she is reminded of her effect
she calms herself
pretends to feel better for me

days pass by and opportunities knock
we find ourselves in a posh hotel bar
champagne flows first
she engages a handsome movie star

the party moves
i'm in a bathroom doing cocaine
she's at a table talking to a stranger
we get a phone call

another hotel and more movie stars
another bathroom and more cocaine
then a condo and she plays a favorite film
sitting in my lap, another woman wants her

the party moves
a hotel suite where she raids the mini bar
conversations in the bathroom
she gives advice to a cocky youth

sunlight comes and stays while we do more cocaine
but finally the journey home is upon us
but she cannot sleep
she fears lying there, her mind racing with tears and madness

she pleads with me to take her north
i find myself in the lobby of a hospital
she disappears into the back
i take a nap in my car

when i return, she is gone, nowhere to be found
i need to know where, but i am surrounded
i'm the husband who beats her
that's the joke they've been told

and twenty four hours pass
is she in a padded cell
have her wrists been taped
is it electroshock therapy

all i can do is wait and swim around in my own tears and madness
finally she calls
she is less than a mile away
again, i race down the streets

i find her curled up in two day old tights and smeared makeup
a room of lost souls with the price is right on tv
everyone sleeps in recliners
i lift her out of this coffin, to carry her home

she is cold and i give her my sweatshirt
she gives it back because it stinks
i put her in my chariot and take her to her palace
i lay her in her bed and let her sleep

i stand guard for her outside
i stood guard for her all night
i'll stand guard for her forever
her tears and madness are mine to protect

The Fading Moment

Tiny hidden bungalow in the mountainside
Noisy roars of blurred lights streaking by in the distance
Candles lit and a bag of underwear and lingerie on my carpet
She poses for my camera doing what I say

And then we smoke with a shot of whiskey

She strips down and tells me to taste her legs
She strips me down and tastes me for the first time
Her phone is far away, locked up in her car
I pretend I'm the image she has in her head

And then we smoke with another shot of whiskey

Sitting on the couch, running our hands like crazy
Standing in the kitchen, so close to each other
She is afraid it will change if we sleep together
I'm afraid it will change if we don't sleep together

And then we smoke with another shot of whiskey

Remembering September Eleventh

I'll never forget September 11th, 2001. Misha had flown in the night before, and taken a cab from JFK to my office, which was on the corner of 57th and 5th Avenue. We brought her luggage upstairs (she never traveled with less than five bags) and spent the night in the vice president's office, making a bed of cushions with the two sofas - way nicer than my tiny room in the Queen's House with Shawn, Damon and Reilly. The next morning, we woke up at 7AM and put the couches back together and around 8, before people started rolling in to the office, headed over to the Deli a few blocks away for breakfast. We returned around 9AM and saw masses of people gathered around the GE building above FAO Schwarz, watching the two big screens broadcasting one of the World Trade Towers. We inquired as to what was going on, only to learn a plane had hit one of the towers. We could look straight down Fifth Avenue and see the plumes of smoke rising into the air. Misha and I tried our cell phones but there was no service. Then, we saw another explosion (we later learned that was the second plane) --- and I had just been there a week ago as my boss had a breakfast meeting at Windows on the World and left his wallet so I had to go pick it up. After realizing the gravity of the moment, Misha and I raced up to my 15th floor office where I was met by the secretary Margarita, who said my mom had already called several times and that the Pentagon had also been hit. It was like being in a Roland Emmerich movie. After I called my mom and told her I was okay and getting out of the city, I phoned Shawn who was still sleeping, and uttered the weirdest words ever, "Dude, get up... New York is under attack." As there were no cabs, subways or any public transportation out of the city, we were faced with the long march to Long Island City... and of course... as I mentioned, Misha had five bags, including two relatively big suitcases... that I was going to have to carry. Luckily we were on 57th street and it was a pretty straight shot to the Queensboro Bridge... As I walked across that bridge, I felt like the Israelites exodusing from Egypt. And I remember two New Yorkers, random people I never saw again, came to my aid with Misha's luggage, easing the burden. We all found humor in me having to carry these bags, but it was quickly abated by the incomprehensible terror surrounding us. All we could do was watch from the bridge as the towers collapsed into dust clouds of ash and soot. The lives lost, unfathomable. The reasons why this was happening could not be calculated or understood to us. It took Misha and I two hours to make the four mile trek to my house. And I remember when I got there, everyone was standing in the living room, jugs upon jugs of water everywhere that they'd run and purchased at the Pathmark, eyes glued to the TV - where we first learned of the passengers who fought back on United 93 -- and then Damon turned to me and said... this was Osama bin Laden. I didn't know who that was at the time. The next thing I remember was the sound of JET ENGINES thundering from outside and we all scattered out of the house, as if WE were the next target. But it was just a pair of US fighter jets patrolling the sky. We soon came to terms that the threat was over and the aftermath and journey to understanding were upon us. A dozen years later, I'm still trying to understand it. I don't think I ever will.